The War on Welfare: US, Germany and the UK shrink benefits while ramping up arms spending
The idea of social reforms made possible in the last century are giving way to an appalling reality in this one – millions of people are about to die because basic services are being curtailed
There is a theme to western governments right now – seen dramatically in the current discussions about shrinking welfare and healthcare provision, dramatic expansions in military spending and refusal to reign in the rich. In the US, the UK and Germany, in particular, there appears to be a lock step agenda to destroy the social state, and with it, the lives of those who depend on benefits. As usual, the culprits are the “poor,” also known as mostly single people, women, single parents, people with disabilities, and immigrants.
Here is a quick rundown of what is afoot internationally.
United States - Medicaid Armageddon
President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (a.k.a. “Big Beautiful Bill” or BBB) is a sweeping budget reconciliation package the House passed May 22, 2025. It is currently being considered in the Senate, and the odds are that it will not only pass, but also be successfully reconciled, and become law. The legislation proposes staggering tax cuts and corresponding (at minimum) $700–$800 billion in reductions to Medicaid over ten years. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), nearly 7.8 million people would lose Medicaid by 2034, while an additional 4 million would be dropped due to Affordable Care Act marketplace changes—and up to 4.2 million more would lose coverage once ACA premium tax credits expire.
Further Congressional Budget Office analysis linked Medicaid and ACA cuts to as many as 12 million more uninsured Americans by 2034. Experts warn that imposing work requirements, frequent re-verification checks, and copays will eradicate coverage for millions—particularly targeting low-income adults aged 19‑64.
Hospitals, especially rural ones, are also sounding alarms. They say the proposed $785 billion in Medicaid cuts could devastate them especially given the wave of millions more uninsured Americans as a result of these cutbacks. with a significant blow to reproductive and prenatal healthcare .
There are currently 70 million Americans on Medicaid, and the program enjoys and broad public support (about 80%). These cuts would mark the most dramatic rollback since the program’s 1965 inception. Indeed, there is also already concern that in ten years, both Medicaid and Medicare will literally buckle under underfunding pressure, right about the time that Social Security also disappears, as widely anticipated. How this will impact the midterms if not the next presidential election is another matter, particularly given stiff Republican support of the current bill.
Welfare Rollbacks in Germany Under Merz and the CDU
However, this is not just happening in a vacuum or in an attempt to roll back the Obama era expansions in public health coverage. In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s new CDU-led government is steering a similar path. The government is proposing centralizing proposed welfare reforms that could terminate basic support (Grundsicherung) in some cases. Unlike the US, people who are unemployed for more than two years receive welfare benefits indefinitely until they find new employment. The program run by the so-called “Job Center” is also responsible for issuing top up checks to those who work for less than the minimum wage, and people with disabilities. While detailed federal cabinet proposals remain pending, constitutional scholars warn they would violate Article 1 of the Basic Law, which guarantees human dignity and minimal subsistence protection, as well as a Supreme Court ruling in 2019 which supports this.
A recent coalition draft—backed by talks with the Greens—floats applying stringent asset tests, harsher sanctions for refusal to meet “behavioral requirements,” and local social offices stripping benefits entirely . Such cuts will dramatically and negatively impact millions of Germans, including anyone who has been unemployed for a long time, freelancers, low earrners, and those with disabilities, particularly mental disabilities.
Quantitative death estimates are still early-stage—unlike the UK case. Yet German public health experts caution that denial of support leads directly to homelessness, untreated mental illness, malnutrition, and increased mortality, especially among older people and those with chronic disease. More than one study has already noted with alarm that this “could contravene Germany’s constitutional commitment to sustaining life itself.”
The CDU’s parallel push for massive increases in defense spending (projected at €100bn annually, perhaps as much as €400bn) underscores the ideological choice: pump federal money into armaments, tighten the belt on social safety nets. That this is happening at a time of rising costs and astronomical increases in rent means that even in Germany, the social welfare state is under attack.
The UK’s National Health Service Cuts
Britain’s NHS has borne multiple waves of austerity since 2010. A landmark BMJ Open study estimated 152,141 excess deaths between 2015 and 2020 tied to healthcare and social care cuts—averaging roughly 100 deaths per day. Another report by the Royal College of Emergency Medicine suggested an additional 14,000 annual deaths due to delayed access to emergency care—more than double the UK combat deaths in the Falklands War.
Further alarming findings include:
120,000 avoidable deaths in England linked to nurse shortages and social-care understaffing between 2001–2014.
The Guardian reports a rise in untreated illnesses and soaring A&E visits, triggered by collapsing primary and community care.
Hospitals across NHS England are cutting staff budgets by up to 50%, threatening 12,000 jobs and triggering warnings that “cuts will result in patient deaths.”
NHS trusts are now operating billions in deficit, cutting permanent staff and warning that patient harm is inevitable. Excess deaths have soared: nearly 53,000 more deaths in 2023 than expected, and over 1,000 additional deaths weekly—the worst non‑pandemic year since WWII.
A Grim Pattern: Shrinking States, Rising Arms Spending
Across the US, Germany, and UK, a stark pattern emerges:
USA
Massive Medicaid/food‑stamp cuts under BBB
Tens of millions uninsured; rural hospital collapse; projected worse mortality
+$350 bn for border/military; +$25 bn missile defense
Germany
Welfare tightening; cuts to basic subsistence
Risk of forcing vulnerable into destitution; unknown death toll; constitutional crisis
€100–400 bn ramp-up in defense budgets
UK
NHS & social-care austerity since 2010
150K–200K excess deaths; 100/day now; hospital staff cuts
Defense boost and deep public spending cuts away from preventative social health
The data are chilling: The U.S. legislature is about to make Medicaid cuts on a scale that would strip coverage from millions, with ripple effects that promise worse health outcomes and rising medical debt. Germany’s government may soon undermine its own constitution, risking destitution for its most vulnerable—while pouring unprecedented sums into military hardware. And in the UK, we are already seeing mass death as a direct result of healthcare retrenchment.
This is not fiscal responsibility—it is a moral abdication. Western democracies are purposefully shrinking the welfare state, even as they bulk up military spending. They are effectively saying: defense (against an ever changing enemy) comes before decent healthcare, and war readiness is more important than human life.
A War Against Humanity
In an era of rising geopolitical tension, western governments are simultaneously defunding what keeps citizens healthy and safe—social programs, healthcare, welfare—while rewiring budgets toward national security and weaponry. The excuses are legion (China, Russia, Iran, fill in the blank).
But ultimately, this is not crisis management or responsible governance—it is a deliberate reordering of national priorities at the expense of the most vulnerable and for the benefit of an increasingly well off super minority.
So far, the arms race appears to be winning. Public health, social solidarity, lives—they lose. That is the grotesque tragedy of the shrinking state in an age of rising global inequality, the rise of the super rich, and the demonization of anyone except white men.