Top 10 Reasons the US is on track to be a Rogue State in 2025
There are tell-tale signs, historically speaking. Here are ten of them
Political scientists, historians, economists, and others, who study the rise of totalitarian and rogue states are looking at the US right now as Exhibit A of a rogue state in the making.
What are those signs? Here is a top ten list of some of them, with a few recent events to give specific examples.
1. Erosion of Democratic Norms
The undermining of free elections and the judicial system is alarming, beyond whether the “vote counts” have been tampered with (which is almost unheard of, even this year). Recent election disputes, gerrymandering, and attempts to delegitimize voting results highlight this trend. While the US has always had periods of democratic instability, and both parties have engaged in this kind of behaviour (see the activities of the Kennedy family before they went respectable, Joe got an ambassadorship, and his son the presidency). Not to mention big city political machines, particularly on the coasts and midwest. However, for the last twenty years – this century, the continued assault on democratic outcomes, the continued reliance on the electoral college, and the disaster of the last three presidential elections in the United States has clearly moved the United States if not into new territory, then lands the country has not occupied (metaphorically of course) since the 19th century. Of course, the idea that all of this was visited on the country after people dared to vote for a black president and women suddenly seemed poised to take the reigns is another discussion about the overall maturity of the US as a democracy, no matter how old the American Constitution is.
2. Human Rights Abuses
From mass deportations to inhumane detention centres, the U.S. has been criticized for violating human rights conventions. These actions damage its credibility on the global stage. While the US has always had periods of its history that were more brutal than others (the establishment of the country, for starters, along with the wholesale genocide of the indigenous population is a prime example), there have also been periods of dramatic advancement. See the suffragist movement, the civil rights movement, and to the extent it has survived and not been beaten into a bloody pulp, the weak US labour movement. What Trump is now threatening at least is not unprecedented in the country’s history, but may top previous abuses, including Guantanamo Bay. Associations with Nazis and appointing a SecDef who defends war criminals is not a good omen.
3. Authoritarian Tendencies
Rising executive overreach, politically motivated prosecutions, and the politicization of federal agencies mirror rogue states’ governance tactics. There is a very real threat that Trump may attempt to stay in power longer. No matter what happens, his early picks for his first cabinet clearly show where this is going to go. Dear Leader is going to be very hard to get out of the White House. Especially because a lot of people, including the mainstream press, are trying very hard to pretend that all of this post-election 2024 is not really that bad. Nope. It’s going to be worse.
4. Withdrawal from International Agreements
Abandoning treaties like the Paris Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal signals disengagement from global norms and leadership responsibilities. The US is not a NATO fan anymore, and Europe, for one, is now facing that fact, again, after four years of screwing around pretending that something like this could never happen again. Guess what? Regardless, the US is clearly seen from outside of the country, as an increasingly volatile partner of any kind, which means it is not a partner at all. The world is undergoing a tectonic shift in alliances of all kinds right now. America is fast on track to be aligned not with the world’s remaining democratic democracies, but rather its most dangerous and unpredictable countries.
5. Weaponization of the Economy
Economic sanctions, trade wars, and dollar hegemony are increasingly viewed as tools of coercion, undermining trust in U.S. financial systems. The rise of Elon Musk and other oligarchs (Peter Thiel let’s remember basically demoed this version of Silicon Valley usurpation of American elections with the funding of J.D. Vance into the Senate) is just another example of this. The idea of letting a defence contractor who is also the world’s richest man, and anti-labour, anti-regulation, and apparently anti women, have a say in cutting the US budget for everyone else is appalling. But that is what you get in a rogue state. Of course, those who have been critical of US foreign policy since the end of WWII also recognize something else. The appalling actions of the political power are now being turned inward. The American people are not ready for what is about to happen. It is going to be tragic. And that is even before the cyber currency disasters that are about to explode.
6. Surveillance and Data Privacy Violations
Domestic and international spying by agencies like the NSA raises concerns about the U.S. ignoring both sovereignty and privacy rights. The fact that Trump’s cabinet picks in this area are seen as untrustworthy even domestically should ring alarm bells. Remember that this happened even in Democratic administrations. Obama sold out on FISA the summer before winning the presidency. He never walked back again. Of course, what is about to happen under Trump, domestically, is going to make the Army McCarthy Trials look like a walk in the park.
7. Mass Militarization and War Crimes
Overseas military actions, some involving civilian casualties, are seen as violating international laws. Meanwhile, the U.S. shields itself from the jurisdiction of bodies like the ICC. Guantanamo Bay was the beginning of the end for the US being on the “right” side of history although those who have opposed US foreign policy since the end of WWII have seen the same kinds of things play out repeatedly overseas. What is about to happen, even if Pete Hegseth does not become SecDef (the Secretary of Defense) is terrifying for anyone with a sense of history. Not to mention remembers Trump’s comments as of this summer that what he really wanted was Nazi generals.
8. Climate Change Denial and Environmental Neglect
The rollback of environmental protections and fossil fuel dependency places global ecosystems at risk, contradicting international commitments. The US, the world’s largest consumer and by extension its worst polluter, is going for another round with fossil fuels. At least where Musk does not stick his grubby paws. Remember that he made Tesla profitable via the use of carbon credits, not genius design.
9. Polarized Domestic Politics and Governance Paralysis
Internal divisions hinder the U.S.’s ability to function as a stable global leader, creating ripple effects on its global alliances and agreements. This is true for everything, from pharmaceutical treaties to arms control treaties. Even if Trump is thrown out of power in four years, or less, the reality is that the polarization of the country has created whipsaw policies and politics that at minimum, can change, even drastically, over the span of just four years. That makes long term planning completely impossible.
10. Global Perception as an Unreliable Ally
See above. However, generally, pulling out of commitments like NATO funding, abandoning allies in conflict zones, and inconsistent foreign policies create trust deficits internationally does not build trust. The US is very likely to wake up in the next several years and find that the rest of the world has gone on without them.
Scary times, indeed.